There are Islamists, Muslim separatists, communists, private posses belonging to local politicians, feuding tribes and gangs of common criminals. The Abu Sayyaf and the Maute groups are just two of many armed factions in the region. And the complicated situation in Mindanao, Mr Duterte’s home region, may yet stay his hand.
Marcos’s brutality failed to pacify the south. He deepened public concerns when he said, on his way home from Moscow: “To my countrymen who have experienced martial law, it would not be any different from what President Marcos did. Mr Duterte has often seemed to crave similar power: he has mused about declaring martial law as part of his murderous anti-drug campaign, and to deal with long-running insurgencies in other parts of Mindanao. The harm inflicted by the security forces after Marcos declared martial law countrywide is scorched into the memories of many Filipinos. Mr Lorenzana said that martial law would give security forces the power to restrict people’s movement and conduct searches without a court order. If he wants to extend it he will face little opposition in Congress, where he has a majority. Mr Duterte himself said later that it might last for a year, and he mused about expanding it across the country. His spokesman said martial law would remain in effect across Mindanao for 60 days. Mr Duterte declared martial law while on a state visit to Moscow, which he cut short to restore order at home. As The Economist went to press, at least 21 people were reported killed. Maute seized a jail, freeing more than 100 inmates, as well as a hospital, the city hall and parts of a university campus-many of which were burned. In the ensuing battle, thousands of civilians fled Marawi. To their surprise, security forces met resistance from about 100 armed members of another group, called Maute, which also claims IS links. The defence minister, Delfin Lorenzana, said troops and police had raided a hideout in Marawi to arrest Isnilon Hapilon, the leader of a branch of the Abu Sayyaf, an armed group that pledges allegiance to IS. Whatever the consequences in lawless Mindanao, for many Filipinos the imposition of martial law was an eerie reminder of a similar declaration in 1972 by the country’s then president, Ferdinand Marcos, that began a decade of ruinous dictatorship. Gunmen from one jihadist group fought back when the security forces attempted to capture the leader of another such group.
RODRIGO DUTERTE, the Philippine president, declared martial law in Mindanao, the southern homeland of his country’s Muslim minority, after fighting broke out in the streets of the largely Muslim city of Marawi.
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